In 1997, avian influenza ah5n1 viruses first spread from poultry directly to infect humans in hong kong resulting. The cdc s new five categories for pandemic severity james wesley rawles february 4, 2007 february 4, 2007 several survivalblog readers mentioned an article that ran recently in the new york times. This index is explained in a cdc report outlining pre. The pandemic severity index see graphic below was adopted in the 2007 community strategy for pandemic. During a response to pandemic influenza, the direction of local, state, or federal public health authority may alter the strategies that are outlined in this plan. Similar to preparing for a hurricane, this index helps communities with pandemic preparedness and planning. Stephen redd was wrapping up an influenza flu pandemic planning meeting on april 15, 2009, when someone on the phone reported that a new or novel influenza a virus had infected a 10yearold boy in california. Influenza flu the pandemic severity index psi is a proposed classification scale for reporting the severity of influenza pandemics in the united states. The cdc has developed a pandemic severity index, with categories of increasing severity category 1 to category 5. According to the cdc, one of the first steps after an outbreak becomes a pandemic is to employ whats called a. The centers for disease control and prevention cdc manages this strategic national stockpile sns and has plans for rapid deployment to states during critical events.
The psi was accompanied by a set of guidelines intended to help communicate appropriate actions for communities to follow in potential pandemic situations. Community strategies by pandemic flu severity 1 pandemic severity index interventions by setting 1 2 and 3 4 and 5 home voluntary isolation of ill at home adults and children. This document is intended for use primarily by public health professionals at the. Community strategy for pandemic influenza mitigation in the united statesearly, targeted, layered use of nonpharmaceutical interventions. In recent times, most pandemics have been due to newly emerging influenza viruses. Severity index provides communities a tool for scenariobased contingency planning to guide local prepandemic preparedness efforts. As an example, a pandemic could be categorize as having low to moderate transmissibility with moderate to high clinical severity. The quadrants replace the previous pandemic severity index, a 5point scale that was similar to the severity scale used for hurricanes and was based strictly on the casefatality ratio of the new virus. The pandemic severity assessment framework psaf is an evaluation framework which uses quadrants to evaluate both the transmissibility and clinical severity of a pandemic and to combine these into an overall impact estimate. Upon declaration by who of having entered the pandemic period phase 6 and further determination of u. A category 1 pandemic is as harmful as a severe seasonal influenza season, while a pandemic with the same intensity of the 1918 flu pandemic, or worse, would be classified as category 5. According to the cdc, one of the first steps after an outbreak becomes a pandemic is to employ whats called a pandemic severity assessment.
University of houston pandemic influenza plan 20172018. This has caused comparisons to the 1919 influenza a. Apr 01, 2020 vice president mike pence sought to cast blame on the centers for disease control and prevention and china wednesday when asked why the us was so late in understanding the enormity of the. Reference 20192020 influenza season week 8 ending february 22, 2020. You probably know that covid19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus sarscov2, is a pandemic. An influenza pandemic is a global outbreak of a new influenza a virus that is very different from current and recently circulating human seasonal influenza a viruses. The first is clinical severity, or how serious is the illness associated with infection. Clinical severity is calculated via multiple measures including casefatality ratios, casehospitalization ratios, and deathshospitalizations ratios, while viral.
After months of deliberation, the world health organization has declared covid19 a pandemic. The second factor is transmissibility, or how easily the pandemic virus spreads from persontoperson. For this reason, the united states has stockpiled mechanical ventilators in strategically located warehouses for use in public health emergencies, such as an influenza pandemic. Apr 24, 2017 new federal guidelines on using nonpharmaceutical measures to fight influenza pandemics reflect lessons learned during the 2009 h1n1 pandemic, with changes that include a new framework for gauging the severity of the threat in the early stages. Jan 31, 2020 in recent times, most pandemics have been due to newly emerging influenza viruses. Infectious disease news updated pandemic flu preparations, from closing schools and workplaces for up to 12 weeks to categorizing outbreak severity, were unveiled last month by the cdc and the. Pandemics happen when new novel influenza a viruses emerge which are able to infect people easily and spread from person to person in an efficient and sustained way. Vice president mike pence sought to cast blame on the centers for disease control and prevention and china wednesday when asked why the us was so late in understanding the enormity of the. The severity of a pandemic is primarily determined by its death rate. Category 1 assumes 30% illness rate and unmitigated pandemic without interventions category 2 category 3 category 3 category 4 case fatality ratio projected. The 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak and pandemic preparedness. In a bestcase scenario, the pandemic would affect only 1 percent of the global population, with an influenzalike case fatality ratio of 0. The cdcs new five categories for pandemic severity.
The new pandemic severity index relevealed last week by the cdc lists 5 levels, or categories of pandemics. And the 1918 spanish flu would be a category 5 pandemic. It uses a ratio to estimate the number of expected deaths. For example, using the 2009 pandemic table 3, available measures of clinical severity included the symptomatic cfr, the symptomatic casehospitalization ratio, and the ratio of deaths to hospitalizations 5, 8. Psaf is the new pandemic severity index flutrackers news. This interim guidance introduces a pandemic severity index to characterize the severity of a pandemic, provides planning recommendations for specific interventions that communities may use for a given level of pandemic severity, and suggests when these measures should be started and how long they should be used. This plan falls under the authority outlined in the uh emergency management plan which outlines. National pandemic strategy pandemic influenza flu cdc. The pandemic severity index see graphic below was adopted in the 2007 community strategy for pandemic influenza mitigation plan as a way. Flu activity remains high, but severity indicators. Once a novel influenza a virus is identified and is spreading from persontoperson in a sustained manner, public health officials use the pandemic severity assessment framework psaf to determine the impact of the pandemic, or how bad the pandemic will be. This index is explained in a cdc report outlining prepandemic intervention strategies.
Infectious disease news updated pandemic flu preparations, from closing schools and workplaces for up to 12 weeks to categorizing outbreak severity, were unveiled last month by the cdc. In 2016, the zika virus emerged and spread causing a global pandemic. Pandemic severity, based on mortality rates, is classified by the federal government according to a pandemic severity index, ranging form mild to severe. There are two main factors that can be used to determine the impact of a pandemic. As it seemed clear for quite some time, the virus will likely spread to most if. Goals of community measures centers for disease control. The pandemic severity index psi was a proposed classification scale for reporting the severity of influenza pandemics in the united states. This interim guidance introduces a pandemic severity index psi to. Cdcs pandemic preparedness efforts include ongoing surveillance of human and animal influenza viruses, risk assessments of influenza viruses with. In addition to assessing the severity of seasonal flu seasons, this methodology can also be used to determine severity during a flu pandemic. The pandemic influenza severity assessment pisa tool is a framework for using existing influenza surveillance data to determine a qualitative judgment on the severity of a current influenza epidemic or pandemic in comparison to past epidemics and pandemics. What is a pandemic and will coronavirus become one. New cdc guidelines on flu pandemic measures reflect 2009. Apr 02, 2020 the cdc has developed a pandemic severity index, with categories of increasing severity category 1 to category 5.
A covid19 pandemic like that would still tragically cause thousands more deaths, but a far greater human disaster would be avoided. Pandemic severity assessment framework psaf pandemic. Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of. How cdc classifies flu severity cdc centers for disease control. Develop a ramping up strategy tied to the center for disease control cdc pandemic severity index.
Each of these measurements was a 2 on the ordinal scale of clinical severity. Pence seeks to blame cdc and china for any delay in us. Cdcs flu severity index has advice for it computerworld. A category 1 pandemic equates to a really bad seasonal flu year, much like we saw in 1977 when h1n1 reappeared. A 30% car clinical attack rate, high severity scenario, will need approximately 35,000 to 60,500 additional ventilators, averting a pandemic total 178,000 to 308,000 deaths.
The cdc s pandemic severity index ranks the severity of a pandemic by the number of fatalities it causes and offers ideas on how companies can help protect their workers. How to save lives in a covid19 pandemic think global health. Beginning in 2005, maine cdc and others developed their pandemic influenza operations plan based on the probability of the occurrence of a pandemic strain with a much higher severity index rate such as h5h1 rather than h1n1 of 2009, which had a much lower severity index. The quadrants replace the previous pandemic severity index, a 5point scale that was similar to the severity scale used for hurricanes and. People with serious underlying medical conditions like serious heart conditions, chronic lung disease, and diabetes, for example also seem to be at higher risk of developing serious covid19 illness. The pandemic severity index psi was a proposed classification scale for reporting the severity. To determine the severity, the cdph relies on the cdc s pandemic severity index see page 4. A category 2 pandemic would describe the 1957 and 1968 events.
These two factors combined are used to guide decisions about which actions cdc recommends at a given time during the pandemic. Stockpiling ventilators for influenza pandemics nc. Feb 03, 2020 what is the protocol if it is deemed a pandemic. The severity of the covid19 epidemic is not as bad as you. Federal officials repeatedly warned that us hospitals.
This case fatality rate, however, to a trained epidemiologist is obviously a significant overestimation of the. Pandemic influenza severity assessment pisa openwho. Community strategy for pandemic influenza mitigation in the united. The pandemic severity index psi is a proposed classification scale for reporting the severity of influenza pandemics in the united states. The overall rates of hospitalization and death, severity indicators, are considered moderate to low. Health officials have warned the globe to prepare for a pandemic after a spike in cases outside of china in iran, italy and south korea. The cdc estimates that so far, this season has seen 32 million flu illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations, and 18,000 deaths related to influenza, overall. The effects of influenza on a population are attributable to the clinical severity of illness and the number of persons infected, which can vary greatly between seasons or pandemics. The united states is not currently experiencing an influenza pandemic. The aims of the influenza severity assessment are to. Pandemic category levels in severity index to 2 and 3 indicate a need for the dean of student affairs and the newberry college health service staff to make recommendations to the presidents council regarding actions up to and including school closure based on the cdc pandemic guidelines severity index category, logistical considerations. Cdc blogs public health matters blog pandemic severity assessment framework sharing our stories on preparing for and responding to public health events. Government stage 3, 4, or 5, the cdc s director shall designate the category of the emerging pandemic based on the pandemic severity index and consideration of other available information. To determine the level of transmission, the cdph relies on the world health organizations whos pandemic phases see page 4.